The Effects of Church Attendance and Republican Vote

Since the early 1990's, religion has become an accurate predictor of vote choice. I was interested in investigating the role of church attendance, which serves as a proxy measure for religious devotion, on individual's vote choice. Specifically, I wanted to know if religion has always been important to voters when making their vote choice, or if this is a recent development. In the following visuals I explore the role of church attendance on vote choice and how it has changed or stayed the same over time.

I began by investigating regions in the country. I wanted to know if religion played the same role in determining vote choice in both the Southern and non-Southern states. Furthermore, I wanted to know if this relationship has changed overtime.

In this first image, I compare the effect of church attendance on Republican vote choice between Southern and non-Southern States between the years 1948 and 1978. What is most noticeable here is that individuals in Non-Southern states are more influenced by religion than those in Southern states. The figure tells us that as an individual attends church more frequently, he is more likely to vote for a Republican candidate. This pattern was true for individuals in the South; however, the relationship is not as strong.

This second figure compares the same two variables (church attendance and Republican voting), but for the years 1978-1992. What is most evident in this visual is that there is a shift occurring. Religion is becoming less of a determinate of vote choice for individuals in non-southern states and more influential in Southern states.

I wanted to continue this investigation, but did not have sufficient cases to investigate this relationship for 1992-2008. However, the pattern detected in this visual implies that the shift may continue.

Since I was unsatisfied with this finding, I wanted to continue to investigate the influence of religion on vote choice. I also looked at how religion affects vote choice between different age brackets (18-30 and 65-90). Again, I wanted to track this relationship overtime, in order to see if religion has always influenced young and old voters in the same way or if there is an emerging pattern amongst today's voters.

In this third image, I compare the effect of church attendance on vote choice between two different age brackets between the years 1948 and 1978. What is made most evident is that during this time period, older voters' vote choices were more influenced by their faith than younger voters. Despite this finding, for both groups, the more an individual attended church in this time period, the more likely he/she was to vote for a Republican Candidate.

This fourth visual compares the exact same variables as the previous image, except during a different time period (1978-1992). What is most obvious here is that there is a shift occurring. Religion is more strongly influencing younger voters' vote choices and is not as important for older voters.

This final graph compares the influence of religion on vote choice between the years 1992 and 2004 for old and young voters. What is most obvious in this graph is that religion is now more influential on young person's vote choice than for old. This implies that in today's political climate, the more religious a young person is the more likely he/she is to vote for a Republican.

All three of these graphs in combination help tell a story of change in American politics. They reveal that religion is influencing younger voters decisions today in way that it has not influenced past generations.